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sounds like some math is off somewhere. 1.95% is close enough it can be approximated at around 1/51 (1.96%). That was the rate 3 years ago though. 2 years ago it was about 1/167 ish for one id and 1/500 for the other. Last year was made way harder to be 1/700 and 1/500 (got reduced a bit at end of event). This year probably started with the end of last years reduced rates and then made harder again. Still, the point of asking for a drop change is that the amount of time investment needed to have a reasonable chance of obtaining the drop is insanely high. Yea many people are prepared to do a 1-2 hundred hours of hunting, but more than that means there is not enough actual time in the day to do enough hunting. There's only 4 weeks of event, and that means if you hunt like it's your full time job, you can get 160 hours in (which is way more than any drop should take imo). More than that, and it starts to be a pretty long shot to get at all (also, the argument that even a 1/2 drop could still take hundreds of runs is specious at best, and fallacious at worst. probability math exists for a reason, it's very easy to calculate how likely a drop is over multiple runs). It's one thing to be a hard drop where you can put in lots of effort and reasonably expect your hard work to pay off, it's another to be for all practical purposes impossible by hard work alone and be forced to rely on a large amount of luck.

Edited by Fyrewolf5
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How about saying after a particular hunting time, one should have >50% chance to get at least one drop?

Assume 15 mins per pod (ofc some ppl can do it faster, but I believe 15 mins is fast enough especially if wc/coffee/cigarette break are taken into account)

If the rate is 1/500, one needs 347 runs to have more than 50% rate getting at least one drop. That's like 87 hours or more than 2 weeks full time hunting.

1-(1-1/500)^347=50.07%

For 1/700, one needs 485 runs, which is 121 Hr or 3 weeks full time hunting.

1-(1-1/700)^485=50.01%

How much time does people need to work for earning 150 USD/dts to buy a STA? Obviously 1/500 or 1/700 is way too low.

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This is off topic. But multiply 2/64 by 3 is not 6/192 but 6/64.

this entire conversation is off topic, fight me.

You cant just multiply the top number, you have to multiply the bottom number as well.

edit: also, if saying my arguments are specious or fallacious how come I can hunt for something that's 1/2 for a rare monster and nearly never get it.

On previous servers, I've hunted Frozen Shooter from the Hildetorr which is a 1/2 drop on the right ID. If your statement about probability math is correct, then technically it shouldn't have taken me very long to obtain it right? Then how come I've spent a total of 5 years on Gamecube trying to find a Frozen Shooter from Hildetorrs at a 1/2 ratio and have never found one?

Also, just because it's Gamecube, does not mean the math is different. The math is the same, don't try that.

There are multiple ways to prove I'm right. And very few to prove otherwise.

Regardless, it doesn't matter what ratio you have, luck plays the biggest part in everything that drops. You can have a 99.98/100 drop rate on an item, and it's seemingly most likely that it'll drop on one monster kill, but ultimately, it is up to the fate of RNG to decide that for you. The chances are very high, but RNG still plays the ultimate deciding factor in whether something drops for you or not. You can't deny this or show any proof of this not being the case, as it's been this way since the games creation.

Edited by Auroboro
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I have no idea of what's going on here, I'll read and edit in a bit... but

You cant just multiply the top number, you have to multiply the bottom number as well.

You are wrong.

1/1 * 3 is 3/1 (what Uranus said is right)

If you multiply top and bottom it would be 3/3, which is 1...

What you are trying to do is multiply by 1 (x/x = 1) useful for some tricks in math, but totally wrong here since at the end the number would be the same.

And well.. for all to stop crying, STA rate is 1/292... not 1/500 neither 1/700

Edited by Soly
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this entire conversation is off topic, fight me.

You really want to fight? so be it

You cant just multiply the top number, you have to multiply the bottom number as well.

Incorrect. If you multiply the top number by 3 and the bottom by 3, that is multiplying by 3/3, aka multiplying by 1. To multiply a fraction by 3, you multiply it by 3/1, or more simply only the top numbers by 3 since the bottom numbers x 1 = the same bottom numbers they were before.

edit: also, if saying my arguments are specious or fallacious

It's specious if you are in high school or earlier still and have not yet reached probability math. It's fallacious if you are past that and should therefore be expected to know better.

how come I can hunt for something that's 1/2 for a rare monster and nearly never get it.

That's because it's easy to remember the times it takes you 3, 4, rarely 5 monsters to get a 1/2 drop, and hard to remember the many times it dropped on the first try.

On previous servers, I've hunted Frozen Shooter from the Hildetorr which is a 1/2 drop on the right ID. If your statement about probability math is correct, then technically it shouldn't have taken me very long to obtain it right? Then how come I've spent a total of 5 years on Gamecube trying to find a Frozen Shooter from Hildetorrs at a 1/2 ratio and have never found one?

That's because you are bullshitting. You didn't hunt only Frozen Shooter for 5 years and not get, you probably did a couple of failed trys at getting a hildetorr and then quit and did other things. The math is simple to calculate. 1 torr = 50% chance, 2 torr = 75%, 3 torr = 87.5%, 4 torr = 93.75% chance, 5 torr= 96.875%, 6 torr = 98.4375%, 7 torr = 99.21875%, 8 torr = 99.609375%, 9 torr = 99.8046875%, 10 torr = 99.90234375. 5 years of hunting torrs 5 days a week with 2 per day would be 2600 torrs =

99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999979010056302630029279888433614442% chance of getting at least 1 frozen shooter.

That's just the chance you get at least 1 frozen shooter, so the chance of getting 0 frozen shooters is easy to see there. You didn't hunt torrs for 5 years and not get one. You probably didn't even do 1 week (let's say that's ~10 torrs) of hunting torrs.

Also, just because it's Gamecube, does not mean the math is different. The math is the same, don't try that.

The math is the same regardless, but so far you have shown that you don't understand the math, so don't try that.

There are multiple ways to prove I'm right. And very few to prove otherwise.

So far you haven't proven a single thing other than your inability to do basic math.

Regardless, it doesn't matter what ratio you have, luck plays the biggest part in everything that drops. You can have a 99.98/100 drop rate on an item, and it's seemingly most likely that it'll drop on one monster kill, but ultimately, it is up to the fate of RNG to decide that for you. The chances are very high, but RNG still plays the ultimate deciding factor in whether something drops for you or not. You can't deny this or show any proof of this not being the case, as it's been this way since the games creation.

RNG isn't some mystical whimsical god that will spite you at every turn, probability math exists, probabilities are known, it can all be calculated. The tiniest minute possibility of never getting a single rare to drop ever is technically possible, but it's not in the realm of what is reasonable to expect. You are trying to claim that because of this minute chance of not getting it, that means the rate doesn't really matter. That's why the argument is fallacious, because no sane rational thinking person would make the argument that because you may only have a 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999979010056302630029279888433614442% chance (as you claim to not have gotten frozen shooter with), that means we can just handwave away any counter because it's entirely dependent on RNG as to whether you'll get it and therefore completely irrelevant what the rate is. You know that argument is bullshit.

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I have no idea of what's going on here, I'll read and edit in a bit... but

You are wrong.

1/1 * 3 is 3/1 (what Uranus said is right)

If you multiply top and bottom it would be 3/3, which is 1...

What you are trying to do is multiply by 1 (x/x = 1) useful for some tricks in math, but totally wrong here since at the end the number would be the same.

And well.. for all to stop crying, STA rate is 1/292... not 1/500 neither 1/700

Lol.. well if i had known you posted this i wouldn't have made that topic. gg soly you are a man

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You really want to fight? so be it

Incorrect. If you multiply the top number by 3 and the bottom by 3, that is multiplying by 3/3, aka multiplying by 1. To multiply a fraction by 3, you multiply it by 3/1, or more simply only the top numbers by 3 since the bottom numbers x 1 = the same bottom numbers they were before.

It's specious if you are in high school or earlier still and have not yet reached probability math. It's fallacious if you are past that and should therefore be expected to know better.

That's because it's easy to remember the times it takes you 3, 4, rarely 5 monsters to get a 1/2 drop, and hard to remember the many times it dropped on the first try.

That's because you are bullshitting. You didn't hunt only Frozen Shooter for 5 years and not get, you probably did a couple of failed trys at getting a hildetorr and then quit and did other things. The math is simple to calculate. 1 torr = 50% chance, 2 torr = 75%, 3 torr = 87.5%, 4 torr = 93.75% chance, 5 torr= 96.875%, 6 torr = 98.4375%, 7 torr = 99.21875%, 8 torr = 99.609375%, 9 torr = 99.8046875%, 10 torr = 99.90234375. 5 years of hunting torrs 5 days a week with 2 per day would be 2600 torrs =

99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999979010056302630029279888433614442% chance of getting at least 1 frozen shooter.

That's just the chance you get at least 1 frozen shooter, so the chance of getting 0 frozen shooters is easy to see there. You didn't hunt torrs for 5 years and not get one. You probably didn't even do 1 week (let's say that's ~10 torrs) of hunting torrs.

The math is the same regardless, but so far you have shown that you don't understand the math, so don't try that.

So far you haven't proven a single thing other than your inability to do basic math.

RNG isn't some mystical whimsical god that will spite you at every turn, probability math exists, probabilities are known, it can all be calculated. The tiniest minute possibility of never getting a single rare to drop ever is technically possible, but it's not in the realm of what is reasonable to expect. You are trying to claim that because of this minute chance of not getting it, that means the rate doesn't really matter. That's why the argument is fallacious, because no sane rational thinking person would make the argument that because you may only have a 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999979010056302630029279888433614442% chance (as you claim to not have gotten frozen shooter with), that means we can just handwave away any counter because it's entirely dependent on RNG as to whether you'll get it and therefore completely irrelevant what the rate is. You know that argument is bullshit.

Basically... Don't argue with Saith lol

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pso1449541630.png

877 Pods, 107 konds

That was the most intense hunt for a single item in my time here, longer than even this took last year

516 runs

pso1419477055.png

- Complaining

the droprates for these tough items are all a gamble, it just really sucks when you're on the unlucky side of the rate. I literally had to No Lifeā„¢ pod for 19 days to find one this year; in my opinion thats too long for any item and it makes you question why am i even playing this game.

I'd prefer if the rate was much lower, with maybe less hh to compensate. Then you could hunt on your own time, instead of depending on hh for the drop.

Maybe my experience this year was just an aberration, but if the items gonna take 200 hours to find, its just not worth it. You could save your time and sanity just getting a job and buying DTS instead of playing.

EDIT : If it was a year round drop i wouldnt mind the rate being so ridiculous, but having to throw that many hours compressed in a few weeks time is stressful mane

sorry for crying just had to vent xD

Edited by currey26
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pso1449541630.png

877 Pods, 107 konds

That was the most intense hunt for a single item in my time here, longer than even this took last year

516 runs

pso1419477055.png

- Complaining

the droprates for these tough items are all a gamble, it just really sucks when you're on the unlucky side of the rate. I literally had to No Lifeā„¢ pod for 19 days to find one this year; in my opinion thats too long for any item and it makes you question why am i even playing this game.

I'd prefer if the rate was much lower, with maybe less hh to compensate. Then you could hunt on your own time, instead of depending on hh for the drop.

Maybe my experience this year was just an aberration, but if the items gonna take 200 hours to find, its just not worth it. You could save your time and sanity just getting a job and buying DTS instead of playing

sorry for crying just had to vent xD

I knew you'd get it eventually, CG :P

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pso1449541630.png

877 Pods, 107 konds

That was the most intense hunt for a single item in my time here, longer than even this took last year

516 runs

pso1419477055.png

- Complaining

the droprates for these tough items are all a gamble, it just really sucks when you're on the unlucky side of the rate. I literally had to No Lifeā„¢ pod for 19 days to find one this year; in my opinion thats too long for any item and it makes you question why am i even playing this game.

I'd prefer if the rate was much lower, with maybe less hh to compensate. Then you could hunt on your own time, instead of depending on hh for the drop.

Maybe my experience this year was just an aberration, but if the items gonna take 200 hours to find, its just not worth it. You could save your time and sanity just getting a job and buying DTS instead of playing.

EDIT : If it was a year round drop i wouldnt mind the rate being so ridiculous, but having to throw that many hours compressed in a few weeks time is stressful mane

sorry for crying just had to vent xD

YEAH!!!! Wonderful work 9000!! I knew you'd get it eventually. That must be a huge load off your back.

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You really want to fight? so be it

Incorrect. If you multiply the top number by 3 and the bottom by 3, that is multiplying by 3/3, aka multiplying by 1. To multiply a fraction by 3, you multiply it by 3/1, or more simply only the top numbers by 3 since the bottom numbers x 1 = the same bottom numbers they were before.

It's specious if you are in high school or earlier still and have not yet reached probability math. It's fallacious if you are past that and should therefore be expected to know better.

That's because it's easy to remember the times it takes you 3, 4, rarely 5 monsters to get a 1/2 drop, and hard to remember the many times it dropped on the first try.

That's because you are bullshitting. You didn't hunt only Frozen Shooter for 5 years and not get, you probably did a couple of failed trys at getting a hildetorr and then quit and did other things. The math is simple to calculate. 1 torr = 50% chance, 2 torr = 75%, 3 torr = 87.5%, 4 torr = 93.75% chance, 5 torr= 96.875%, 6 torr = 98.4375%, 7 torr = 99.21875%, 8 torr = 99.609375%, 9 torr = 99.8046875%, 10 torr = 99.90234375. 5 years of hunting torrs 5 days a week with 2 per day would be 2600 torrs =

99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999979010056302630029279888433614442% chance of getting at least 1 frozen shooter.

That's just the chance you get at least 1 frozen shooter, so the chance of getting 0 frozen shooters is easy to see there. You didn't hunt torrs for 5 years and not get one. You probably didn't even do 1 week (let's say that's ~10 torrs) of hunting torrs.

The math is the same regardless, but so far you have shown that you don't understand the math, so don't try that.

So far you haven't proven a single thing other than your inability to do basic math.

RNG isn't some mystical whimsical god that will spite you at every turn, probability math exists, probabilities are known, it can all be calculated. The tiniest minute possibility of never getting a single rare to drop ever is technically possible, but it's not in the realm of what is reasonable to expect. You are trying to claim that because of this minute chance of not getting it, that means the rate doesn't really matter. That's why the argument is fallacious, because no sane rational thinking person would make the argument that because you may only have a 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999979010056302630029279888433614442% chance (as you claim to not have gotten frozen shooter with), that means we can just handwave away any counter because it's entirely dependent on RNG as to whether you'll get it and therefore completely irrelevant what the rate is. You know that argument is bullshit.

Then by your logic I can tell you that all of your data based on your hunts is bull shit because I dont believe you.

That's some good logic dere. Gotta say. "I dont believe it so it cant be true"

Please. This is too much. I'm going to stop now. If only Redeye saw this.

Edit: Sorry, before I stop forever, I'm a writer. Not a math magician. I haven't done probability math in over 5 years. If I make a mistake, Im willing to admit to it, but it doesn't make me any less intelligent or any less of a person (as you insinuate). What I seem to specialize at, rather than doing worthless math, is finding out good and simplistic ways of explaining things through interactive word choices.

I never insulted anybody this conversation, I merely posed my side of the argument. But singling me out when yourself and like 3 other people were just as off topic as me is not very fair to say the least.

Edited by Auroboro
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Cheers under. About time too. It is weird how most people, all of whom certainly didn't find 5 last year already (I wasn't even playing at that time), found theirs a lot earlier than you this year. It almost seems like some kind of fucked up karma where the game is a sentient entity thinking "hey, this guy got so many last year, let's punish him for a while and grant the drop to other players first" ... :onion-head86:

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Then by your logic I can tell you that all of your data based on your hunts is bull shit because I dont believe you.

That's some good logic dere. Gotta say. "I dont believe it so it cant be true"

Please. This is too much. I'm going to stop now. If only Redeye saw this.

Edit: Sorry, before I stop forever, I'm a writer. Not a math magician. I haven't done probability math in over 5 years. If I make a mistake, Im willing to admit to it, but it doesn't make me any less intelligent or any less of a person (as you insinuate). What I seem to specialize at, rather than doing worthless math, is finding out good and simplistic ways of explaining things through interactive word choices.

I never insulted anybody this conversation, I merely posed my side of the argument. But singling me out when yourself and like 3 other people were just as off topic as me is not very fair to say the least.

I only said your argument was specious at best and fallacious at worst, before you posted back with an arrogant brash attitude, saying things like "this entire conversation is off topic, fight me" and "The math is the same, don't try that.", and "There are multiple ways to prove I'm right. And very few to prove otherwise.", as well as responding to your argument being called specious or fallacious with anecdotal bs story about not getting a frozen shooter in 5 years (i.e. exactly proving the point since that itself was both specious and fallacious). If you are going to be that brash and arrogant about a response, at least make sure you have your stuff in order, that you have a solid argument and aren't making silly mistakes, else you risk being called out for it. You invited someone to prove you wrong, so I obliged and called out all the bs in there.

This offtopic has gone on long enough though. Let's get back on track with some screenshots.

EVA Unit 01 has gone berserk! Run for your lives!

33a9e7k.jpg

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