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Hello everyone, guys, does anyone know how to understand the drop rate of an item? Look, the drop table says 1⁄1137, as I understand it, the probability of dropping out needs to be killed isspecific monster 1137, but for example I killed much more, but the item I needed didn’t drop even once ((what’s wrong?

Thanks in advance everyone!

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There are 3 main different conceptions of probability in the literature. One that I don't find very intuitive but that is widely used to explain this type of case is the Popperian one. According to this view, 1/1137 means that when you push the occurrences of something into infinity, on average, event X happens that many times (a more typical example is that when u flip a coin an infinite amount of times, tails/heads p = 0.5/0.5)

PSO doesn't have a pity system, that is, you're not guaranteed to get an item after you kill n amount of monsters. As such, you may get the item sooner or later. 1/1137 is just what should typically happen. But what should typically happen doesn't always happen.

 

TL;DR 1/1137 does not mean you are getting an item after killing a monster 1137 times. You may get it later or sooner. It's a bit unfortunate that you didn't get it yet but it is what it is.

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17 minutes ago, Lobotomy said:

В литературе существует 3 основных различных концепции вероятности. Один из них, который я не нахожу очень интуитивным, но который широко используется для объяснения этого типа случая, — это метод Поппера. Согласно этой точке зрения, 1/1137 означает, что когда вы приближаете количество вхождений чего-либо к бесконечности, в среднем событие X происходит столько раз (более типичный пример: когда вы подбрасываете монету бесконечное количество раз, решка/орел р = 0,5/0,5)

В PSO нет системы жалости, то есть вы не гарантированно получите предмет после того, как убьете n количество монстров. Таким образом, вы можете получить товар рано или поздно. 1/1137 - это то, что обычно должно происходить. Но то, что обычно должно происходить, происходит не всегда.

 

TL;DR 1/1137 не означает, что вы получаете предмет после убийства монстра 1137 раз. Вы можете получить его позже или раньше. Немного жаль, что вы еще этого не поняли, но это то, что есть.

I understand everything. That's pretty much what I thought. Probability. For some things fell literally from the first killed monsters. Although I didn't even come close to the number. Thank you.

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5 hours ago, Lobotomy said:

There are 3 main different conceptions of probability in the literature. One that I don't find very intuitive but that is widely used to explain this type of case is the Popperian one. According to this view, 1/1137 means that when you push the occurrences of something into infinity, on average, event X happens that many times (a more typical example is that when u flip a coin an infinite amount of times, tails/heads p = 0.5/0.5)

PSO doesn't have a pity system, that is, you're not guaranteed to get an item after you kill n amount of monsters. As such, you may get the item sooner or later. 1/1137 is just what should typically happen. But what should typically happen doesn't always happen.

 

TL;DR 1/1137 does not mean you are getting an item after killing a monster 1137 times. You may get it later or sooner. It's a bit unfortunate that you didn't get it yet but it is what it is.

Another variable that completely affects probability in this case, is DAR. It has to pass that check first before it even rolls for the 1/1137.

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1 minute ago, Clappy said:

Another variable that completely affects probability in this case, is DAR. It has to pass that check first before it even rolls for the 1/1137.

Yeah. But we have no idea whether he plays on solo or multi. So, since the poor guy is already using transalte, it's probably better not to make things even more complicated. Was just trying to explain why 1/1137 doesn't mean each 1137 kills u get 1 drop (even assuming 100% DAR).

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9 minutes ago, Lobotomy said:

Yeah. But we have no idea whether he plays on solo or multi. So, since the poor guy is already using transalte, it's probably better not to make things even more complicated. Was just trying to explain why 1/1137 doesn't mean each 1137 kills u get 1 drop (even assuming 100% DAR).

True

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40 minutes ago, Clappy said:

Another variable that completely affects probability in this case, is DAR. It has to pass that check first before it even rolls for the 1/1137.

Ultima drop tables rates already include DAR calculation.

1/1137 isn't a possible base rate (without DAR).

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6 hours ago, vital542 said:

Hello everyone, guys, does anyone know how to understand the drop rate of an item? Look, the drop table says 1⁄1137, as I understand it, the probability of dropping out needs to be killed isspecific monster 1137, but for example I killed much more, but the item I needed didn’t drop even once ((what’s wrong?

Thanks in advance everyone!

Do you remember playing Dreamcast or Gamecube PSO offline, and never finding anything special? It's because we sucked at the time, did small damage, and didn't always play 4 player split screen.
In PSOBB there are a few things that determines drop rates. Happy Hour, a player's efforts, and how many players are in a party.
The more people in a party the better the chance of getting a drop.
For example, Snipe and I were trying to find Three Seals with just us two recently, and wasn't getting it, so I invited 2 more people, and sure enough multiple ended up dropping.
Soloing makes it even harder. But a good reason for that is the fact the game itself calculates each player's damage output. This is why Damage Parser exists even in PSO2 and other games. I wouldn't be playing PSO if it was based on Luck alone. That would make 0 sense. 
People think I'm crazy when I say DPS (Damage per second) makes a huge difference, but I just know my shit, because I pay attention to patterns.
This is why DF special/HUcast is endgame. It's the highest damage per second possible when you strike a monster with Dark Flow special.

What I'm trying to say is, play with full parties 4/4, and try to do more damage per second, and you'll get what you want in the end. PSO isn't a luck based game like many seem to think. I wouldn't even be playing PSO if that was the case, because my luck is trash. A player's effort counts. PSO2's coding is similar. I remember belonging to a team that used to be serious about damage output, and used damage parsers to determine who did what after every quest. Most games are like that.

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Thanks guys for all the replies. And I play online and complete quests in single player mode. And of course, many thanks to those guys who just presented me with a couple of guns (I don’t remember the names). And I did not say that rare things do not fall, and a lot fall. But exactly what I want - the last week I got tired of knocking out. Thanks again. I'm from Russia, so it's bad in English.

 

Can you elaborate on what DAR is?

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DAR = Drop Anything Rate = odds that a monster will drop an item for you (meseta, monomate, dimate etc, or rare item).

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10 hours ago, R-78 said:

Ultima drop tables rates already include DAR calculation.

1/1137 isn't a possible base rate (without DAR).

:0. I didn't know that. Does this mean that if I want to assign a more accurate probability to getting some item when farming solo, for example, I should substract the 4p DAR reduction from the rates?

P.S. Nevermind. I just saw that if you put your mouse on the rate the assumed DAR appears, apologies :C

Edited by Lobotomy
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Monster DAR is what is included in the drop table rates. The Individual Dropstyle DAR multiplier based on number of players in the group (1p 100%, 2p 93%, 3p 90%, 4p 88%) is something different. For example, Red Sword has a base drop rate of 1/315 on all of its drop sources. The 1/572, 1/900, and 1/2100 rates on the chart are a result of the DAR of those monsters being included (Nano Dragon 55%, Govulmer 35%, Melqueek 15%).

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33 minutes ago, Flerbert said:

Monster DAR is what is included in the drop table rates. The Individual Dropstyle DAR multiplier based on number of players in the group (1p 100%, 2p 93%, 3p 90%, 4p 88%) is something different. For example, Red Sword has a base drop rate of 1/315 on all of its drop sources. The 1/572, 1/900, and 1/2100 rates on the chart are a result of the DAR of those monsters being included (Nano Dragon 55%, Govulmer 35%, Melqueek 15%).

Ok ok ok ok. That explains everything. You're the best ❤️

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On 9/12/2022 at 8:10 PM, R-78 said:

Ultima drop tables rates already include DAR calculation.

1/1137 isn't a possible base rate (without DAR).

I didn't know that. I appreciate the info

Edited by Clappy
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