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Insane PGF Drop Rate Theory (please prove me wrong)

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9 minutes ago, Starlord said:

Jokes on you I paid 300dts for a red handgun. Also the red handgun thing was just to see flowen and you use dark flow on falz to see Rico. It was never to up chances of pgf or rr

 

That is beautiful man. This is what it's like when doves cry. 

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6 hours ago, Emewn said:

There are some things about machines that the common man would still consider unbelievable.
It's almost as if man gives machines life in more than one way. The human minds seems to affect all sorts of things in many kinds of ways.

I'll have what he's smokin

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Okay, so, I feel a little bad about just disliking and carrying on, so I'm going to pick this post apart a little.

6 hours ago, Emewn said:

Most of the PGF that dropped so far was for Oran ID.
People keep saying PGF drops for all ID, but it hasn't really been dropping for all IDs.

Do you have data for this? Unless you've seen and logged every PGF drop, this can't be verified, which spreads misinformation. We've had confirmed drops from (I think) every ID - but results will be skewed by what the more popular IDs are. I'd hazard a guess that Pinkals have gotten less PGF this event, simply because there's less of them to begin with. Saying Pinkal drop chance is lower would be wrong.

Apart from anything, having the drop rate be higher or lower on one ID would be a monumentally dumb decision, because if it was ever found out, the community would be livid that they'd wasted their time on characters with a lower drop chance without even knowing.

6 hours ago, Emewn said:

As for PSO's coding. Wise is he who believes he doesn't know it all.

I mean, I'll admit there are a number of things we don't know about the PSO code, but it's relatively easy to extrapolate what some parts might or might not do. Even with just the basic stuff I've looked at in terms of drops suggests that it's literally just a drop chance.

6 hours ago, Emewn said:

There are some things about machines that the common man would still consider unbelievable.
It's almost as if man gives machines life in more than one way. The human minds seems to affect all sorts of things in many kinds of ways.

I'm not quite sure what you're trying to say here. I don't think there's much about a 20 year old game that people would think to be unbelievable, considering the games we have nowadays. As for the second part, are you suggesting that server is sentient in that it decides who gets drops, or that we're psychic and can influence drops by wanting it really hard? I'm... not going to go into that.

6 hours ago, Emewn said:

There are things even I'm still learning about PSO. A game people think they have completely figured out, because they've played it for so long.

Ignoring the somewhat obnoxious wording of the first sentence, I can't imagine that people have hidden a "secret way of getting item drops" into the game. Apart from it being stupidly complex for any game, so many people have tinkered with the game over the years that it'd have come to light. Even entertaining the notion that doing specific things gets you a higher drop chance, how would the mods and admins here code that? 

6 hours ago, Emewn said:

However, people sometimes keep the same perspective on things for years, and find it difficult to grow. I was one of those people for most of my life.

Congrats on the epiphany, I guess ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

6 hours ago, Emewn said:

Let me tell you a story.
In Schtserv 08, I met a guy who I used to hunt PGF with.
He used to get the last hit on Olga Flow with a Red Handgun, and said it was to increase the chance of PGF dropping.
I'm not sure what sort of coding made that possible, because I'm somewhat retarded.
However, that trick did work in Schtserv. So I tested it on Ultima server... 
And recently during my 1st Bluefull RT of the day, I managed to get the last hit on Olga Flow with a Red Weapon, and PGF dropped.
Considering the chances of getting a PGF to drop are slim as hell, that could be a coincidence, but I will experiment more to be 100% sure

Did you ever watch Avatar: The Last Airbender? There's an episode in there with a fortune teller, who tells one dude he'll meet the love of his life when he's wearing red shoes. So he always wears red shoes. And, surprise surprise, he meets his love when he's wearing red shoes. 

In Pokemon, people used to say that holding Down + B when catching Pokemon would increase the capture rate. It didn't, but people captured Pokemon whilst holding it down. Correlation does not equal causation.

6 hours ago, Emewn said:

Feel free to test this with me.
Get the last hit on Olga Flow with a Red Weapon in the name of old Havoc from 08 Schtserv. May PGF drop for us all. 

You're basing this on an incredibly small sample size. We'd be starting on the basis of one drop (yours) and the word of your friend, who... well, I'm not giving that any credibility. How do we test it? Even if you got more drops using red weapons, there's no way to have a control group to compare results to. There's no way to get a sample size big enough to produce accurate results. We'd need tens of thousands of runs.

 

All in all, I can safely say that the drop rate is highly unlikely to be influenced by weapon type, run time, class, time on the server, age of character, how many backflips your character did in the Olga fight, or anything else.

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@Harvest you are arguing with someone who thinks drops are determined by sentient programming dear. This thread transcends logic

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DAR and the rare drop rate.
You are right on that... DAR affects the rare drops (but all other drops as well), is like a 2 stage drop kinda thing?
But on your specific example with PGF, Olga (and all bosses for that matter) have 100% dar.

Now about all that stuff of RNG... I won't get into old games, their consoles or their capabilities but for PSO, as others have pointed out, the drops are handled entirely by the server, no matter what you do in game will affect that (not directly tho).

As for the RNG we use, we no longer use the teth default, we use a different one called XorShift, which is better than mtwist.
As for how this works, it is seeded with a time function and every random number request changes the state of the RNG (there is only one global RNG), there is no other factor in the RNG

So yeah, there is no manipulation to be done.

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But I am but a simple common man! 

Please Pgf drop for me! I do not understand...

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11 minutes ago, Hydromystic said:

But I am but a simple common man! 

Please Pgf drop for me! I do not understand...

But pgf did drop for you. You were one of the lucky chosen ones 

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It be nice to have 2. :) 

Real talk: the drop rate is probably based on Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle.

As such, metahurestically speaking, the quantum annealing is the global minimum as opposed to the extremum. 

This is the unconstrained binary optimization, repeating, of course. 

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24 minutes ago, Hydromystic said:

It be nice to have 2. :) 

Real talk: the drop rate is probably based on Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle.

As such, metahurestically speaking, the quantum annealing is the global minimum as opposed to the extremum. 

This is the unconstrained binary optimization, repeating, of course. 

Measurement=creation

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T heard they nerfed drop because I spammed WOI

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Too lazy to read the rest of the replies, but what generally happens during these events is people hunt, complain about lack of HH, GMs make too many HH, Larva nerfs drop, people complain about nerfed drops, last week or so it's back to normal. Luckily I have the DWs I need so I don't need to sell my soul to have a chance to make a weapon I probably wouldn't use too much.

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6 hours ago, Hydromystic said:

It be nice to have 2. :) 

Real talk: the drop rate is probably based on Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle.

As such, metahurestically speaking, the quantum annealing is the global minimum as opposed to the extremum. 

This is the unconstrained binary optimization, repeating, of course. 

Damn, he figured it out...

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You aren't playing this on a console gc/xbox or something like that. You aren't going to be able to manipulate RNG that way. Back on those you mightve been able to do 'some' stuff (e.g. in cmode, record attack hits/miss and restart cmode and change what attack orders you do to get all hits), but you aren't really going to be able to do anything special as soly explained.

The real way to get PGF to drop is that you have to not just use red handgun, but ALL the red weapons in the correct order to spell out flowen's name, and then 360 no-scope him with flowen's sword to get him to remember who he is and drop the pgf.

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I am disappointed.
When I saw the topic name, I was expecting some drama about PGF not dropping, but there was actually just interesting talk.

It is easy to fall into superstition with experience.

Two years ago I made 2 stupid bets.
I said "if STA drops for me this run I'll give you 99 PDs" and it dropped.
I said "if PGF drops for me this run I'll sing a song on TS" and it dropped. (it was 4:00 am)
I also got two Stellar Shards from Shambertin during the two only times I went to eat during the boss death scene (didn't want to wait for it)

But I know I just got (un)lucky and that there wasn't some god watching me and wanting to have fun with me.

 

This is true, if you do the exact thing in the exact time you'll get the PGF, but as RedMel and Soly said, you simply cannot manipulate your RNG as you like because a single time frame will change everything.

 

15 hours ago, C01D1 said:

Oh man... I just paid 80dts for a max red handgun and changed my ID to Orange for nothing lol. 

15 hours ago, Starlord said:

Jokes on you I paid 300dts for a red handgun.

I will refund you on presentation of the receipts.

 

19 hours ago, Emewn said:

Most of the PGF that dropped so far was for Oran ID.
People keep saying PGF drops for all ID, but it hasn't really been dropping for all IDs.

And yeah Emewn the drop rate is not better on Oran... I will not repeat what Harvest said, it was well explained.
It's not people who said it drops for all IDs but GMs.

 

Also, just to make it clear before someone says "help I tried what the GM said and didn't get the PGF",
This is a joke

3 hours ago, Fyrewolf5 said:

The real way to get PGF to drop is that you have to not just use red handgun, but ALL the red weapons in the correct order to spell out flowen's name, and then 360 no-scope him with flowen's sword to get him to remember who he is and drop the pgf.

 

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1 hour ago, Fyrewolf5 said:

You aren't playing this on a console gc/xbox or something like that. You aren't going to be able to manipulate RNG that way. Back on those you mightve been able to do 'some' stuff (e.g. in cmode, record attack hits/miss and restart cmode and change what attack orders you do to get all hits), but you aren't really going to be able to do anything special as soly explained.

The real way to get PGF to drop is that you have to not just use red handgun, but ALL the red weapons in the correct order to spell out flowen's name, and then 360 no-scope him with flowen's sword to get him to remember who he is and drop the pgf.

The cmode thing still works on bb by the way. 

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