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ultrajerky

List of who has found Sonic Team Armor (2015)

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i see alot of debate going on about STA drop rates and i thought it might be a good idea to list everyone who has found sta here.

basically who has found an sta or two, and how many runs they did.

I have no idea who has found what so you need to comment here and tell me and ill write it down.

Yes i realize not enough have been found to get a reliable average... also HH is a factor.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$hi$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%sup%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

Ricardo Gomes: ---------------------------120 runs, 1 STA

Midori:------------------------------------------500 runs approx? 2 STA

PoleClimber2015:--------------------------30 runs, 1 STA (Viridia)

r-78:---------------------------------------------117 runs, 1 STA (Purple)

ultrajerky:--------------------------------------85 runs, 1 STA (Purple)

Killroy909:-------------------------------------23 runs, 1 STA (Purple)

Edited by ultrajerky
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I think is a dumb idea x: , imo, the number of runs dont increase the chance on getting a drop, even if something is 1/2 that doesnt mean is going to drop. The droprate could be better indeed and i will also like to see droptable for event, but trying to count how many STA have drop and after how many runs just doesnt change anything. I remember someone said once that a guy found a SJS in his 4th try (choko,chuck cant remember), that doesnt mean at all that is an easy drop, thats how probability works and that's it.

Edited by Mayte

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I found two SonicTeam Armors.

I spent about 100 hours doing solo POD runs on Purplenum. If you multiply by 3 during HH, I think I did around 500 runs total.

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1 in 117 runs (including Kondrieus) - Purplenum

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I think is a dumb idea x: , imo, the number of runs dont increase the chance on getting a drop, even if something is 1/2 that doesnt mean is going to drop. The droprate could be better indeed and i will also like to see droptable for event, but trying to count how many STA have drop and after how many runs just doesnt change anything. I remember someone said once that a guy found a SJS in his 4th try, thats doesnt mean at all that is an easy drop, thats how probability works and that's it.

I know it isnt cumulative .. you don't get any closer to it dropping by the number of runs you have done. it's not like an experience bar, i know that. I also know there isnt much of a sample size to get a reliable average... but why not? there isnt any harm. people are really curious about how often this thing drops and i just thought i would jot it down. i am also curious... so you have chosen not to participate, thats fine then.

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23 runs to get my STA purpleuem.

Edited by killroy909

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:onion59:

Please lock this topic for under and whoever found no STA yet.

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What's the point of this topic

Pointless STA thread = profit

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:onion59:

Please lock this topic for under and whoever found no STA yet.

It's too late now, they will all see it lol

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I think is a dumb idea x: , imo, the number of runs dont increase the chance on getting a drop, even if something is 1/2 that doesnt mean is going to drop. The droprate could be better indeed and i will also like to see droptable for event, but trying to count how many STA have drop and after how many runs just doesnt change anything. I remember someone said once that a guy found a SJS in his 4th try (choko,chuck cant remember), that doesnt mean at all that is an easy drop, thats how probability works and that's it.

Hola, aqui te equivocas un poco mayte, de hecho el numero de intentos si incrementa la chance de drop del item y te lo puedo asegurar ya que esto me lo pasaron a mi en una asignatura de mi universidad (probabilidad y estadistica) si gustas puedes googlear una formula matematica llamada funcion binomial o de bernoulli o muchas otras, estas formulas las hicieron matematicos expertos en probabilidades y estadisticas y basicamente lo que hacen es calcular la probabilidad de obtener 1 exito (el drop del item en este caso) despues de x numero de intentos de un evento que tiene cierta probabilidad ( drop rate en este caso) y que los eventos son independientes osea que el numero de intentos no modifica la probabilidad ( drop rate en este caso) por otro lado tienes los eventos dependientes que seria por ejemplo si tienes un mazo de 54 cartas y buscas sacar 1 en especifico tienes una probabilidad de 1/54 , luego si es sin reposicion la probabilidad seria 1/53, y luego 1/52 etc... Estos son eventos dependientes y existe otra formula para calcular la probabilidad, los eventos independientes como es el caso de un drop en pso, tiene otra forma de calcularse y es a partir de las formulas que antes mencione, estas formulas nunca alcanzan el valor 1 que en % siginifica un 100% de exito pero te pueden calcular un valor de 99,99999% eso es que la funcion tiende a 1 pero nunca alcanza este valor, este es un concepto llamado limites en la matematica. De hecho los drop rate se pueden estimar mediante el metodo que esta usanfo ultrajerky, tomas todos los drop que se han obtenido, y junto con la cantidad de intento empiezas a sacar promedios, mientras mas datos tengas mas cerca estara la estimacion de la realidad.

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inb4 locked.

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